Electric Cars May Dominate World Auto Sales Sooner Than You Think

Electric cars may dominate world automobile sales sooner than you think.

NPR reports[1] that in March 2019 58% of new car sales in Norway were of electric cars. Furthermore, most of Norway’s electricity is generated by hydropower, which is relatively clean energy. Therefore, the car batteries there are being recharged without using much fossil fuel like coal, oil, or natural gas.

Though Norway leads in electric sales as a percentage of total auto sales, other nations are increasing electric car sales annually, too. China leads in total sales with purchases of over one million electric vehicles in 2018 according to EV-volumes.com.[2] China is considering “requiring that 60% of auto sales be electric cars by 2035” according to Investors.com[3]. Fortune states[4] that “Hundreds of firms in China are today manufacturing electric cars.”

   

Bloomberg reports[5] that global electric car sales fell in July. However, I am confident that sales will increase dramatically in coming years as the cost of batteries comes down, battery production increases, and stricter air quality standards take place.

In the United States electric car sales are currently a minor part of overall sales. But, in California for the first half of 2019 electric cars were 5.6% of total sales according to GreenCarReports.com,[6] which cited the quarterly California Auto Outlook from the California New Car Dealers Association as its information source. President Trump’s administration argues California lacks the authority to set its own air quality standards, but in July four major auto producers reached “a voluntary agreement with California to adopt state emissions standards” according to Reuters[7] and other sources. Due to California’s huge market for cars, this could lead to a significant increase in electric car sales in upcoming years.

    

Volkswagen is taking actions to greatly increase its production of electric vehicles in coming years according to CNN[8] and other sources. Various other car manufacturers also seek to increase electric car manufacturing. As production increases, the economy of scale can lead to lower costs per vehicle.

My View

Stricter environmental standards in Europe, China, California, and other areas will combine with cheaper and more massive production of batteries for electric vehicles to lead to huge increases in electric vehicle production worldwide over the next decade or two. Government subsidies of electric vehicle purchases will be another major factor in the growth in electric car sales. Large taxes on gasoline in many nations help discourage the purchase of gasoline-powered vehicles, too.

Bloomberg’s “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019[9]” states “By 2040, we expect 57% of all passenger vehicle sales . . . will be electric.” This figure probably seems too large to many readers. But, to me, Bloomberg’s estimate is a conservative one. My guess is that electric car sales will increase much faster than the typical person in the United States expects. What do you think?       

ENDNOTES: 

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[1] Bill Chappell; “Electric Cars Hit Record in Norway, Making Up Nearly 60 Percent of Sales in March”; NPR.org; April 2, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://www.npr.org/2019/04/02/709131281/electric-cars-hit-record-in-norway-making-up-nearly-60-of-sales-in-march

[2] Roland Irle; “Global EV Sales for 2018 - Final Results”; EV-volumes.com; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

[3] Aparna Narayanan; “China Mulls Mandating 60% Electric Car Sales”; Investors.com; September 6, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://www.investors.com/news/electric-car-sales-china-mulls-60-percent-electric-vehicles-mandate/

[4] Jeffrey Ball; “Electric Car Gold Rush: The Auto Industry Charged Into China”; Fortune; August 20, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://fortune.com/longform/electric-car-auto-industry-china/  

[5] “Electric Car Sales Fall For First Time After China Cuts Subsidy”; Bloomberg News; September 3, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-03/electric-car-sales-fall-for-first-time-after-china-cuts-subsidy

[6] Eric C. Evarts; “Electric car sales boom in California, as plug-in hybrids and small cars sputter”; Green Car Reports; September 4, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124891_electric-car-sales-boom-in-california-as-plug-in-hybrids-and-small-cars-sputter

[7] David Shepardson; “U.S. launches antitrust probe into California automaker agreement”; Reuters; September 6, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions/u-s-launches-antitrust-probe-into-california-automaker-agreement-idUSKCN1VR1WG

[8] Hanna Ziady; “Volkswagen’s electric future is quickly taking shape”; CNN; September 6, 2019; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/cars/volkswagen-electric-cars/index.html

[9] Colin McKerracher, Head of Advanced Transport, Bloomberg, NEF; “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019”; BloombergNEF; webpage accessed September 8, 2019; https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/#toc-viewreport

NOTE:

This piece being submitted to Google Blogger on September 9, 2019 is virtually identical to one the author submitted to Craft News Report (a website operated by his friend Paul Craft) on September 8, 2019.