I’m glad. Though I don’t own an automobile and have no plans to buy one, I look forward to breathing cleaner air while walking, bicycling, waiting at bus stops, etc., due to the absence of emissions from vehicle tail pipes.
As mass production of electric vehicles ramps up, their prices will drop. Furthermore, improvements in batteries and chargers will enable the cars to charge faster and to travel further between charges.
Will the U.S. Electric Grid Support 100% Electric Vehicles?
Plans are underway to greatly expand the number of charging stations and to upgrade the electrical grid to accommodate the extra demand.
But concerns raised over whether the United States electric grid is capable of handling the extra load that would occur if 100% of vehicles were electric may be exaggerated. A November 2019 report [1] on the Department of Energy website anticipates the electrical grid providing enough capacity to meet the extra demand that will occur when all (or almost all) autos are electric.
Estimates vary widely on how much making all vehicles electric will increase the load on the electric grid. I’ve seen estimates from 10% to 100%, with about a 25% increase being a common estimate.
With blackouts already occurring sometimes in some places (California, etc.), how will the electric grid accommodate these electric vehicles?
It’s generally agreed that the current electric grid would not accommodate charging all those vehicles at the same time during peak electrical usage. But all electric vehicles would not be charged every day, and to encourage charging them at off-peak times, electric utilities could offer different rates for charging them at different times. A Forbes article [2] claims this would enable the grid to accommodate them. A key is ensuring vehicles primarily charge at off-peak times (maybe while persons sleep overnight and other electric devices are being used less?).
Furthermore, the changeover from gasoline-powered to electric vehicles will take decades. Even if all new cars sold become electric ones in a decade or two, it will likely take another decade or more after that for almost all existing gasoline-powered cars to wear out and be replaced. This allows time for modifications to the electric grid to accommodate the electric vehicles' extra power use.
What About Pollution When Fossil-Fuel Electric Plants Recharge Electric Cars?
In many areas, including Lexington, Kentucky where I live, most electricity generating plants are powered by fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). However, even when fossil-fueled power plants produce the electricity for recharging electric cars, there is less net pollution caused by electric vehicles than by gasoline-powered cars in most areas of the world, including the United States, according to a June 2020 Nature Sustainability article [3].
An EPA webpage [4] dispels many myths about electric vehicles. Among other things, the webpage notes that electric vehicles typically pollute less than gasoline-powered ones even allowing for a fossil-fuel-powered electrical grid and for the energy used to manufacture electric cars' batteries.
Electric Vehicles and Chargers Are Improving
Advances are leading to faster battery charging times, longer driving ranges between charges, and cheaper prices for electric vehicles. These advances will likely accelerate as mass production of electric vehicles ramps up.
In addition to electric cars, increased use of electric buses, trucks, and vans is occurring. More chargers are coming to accommodate them.
Below is a picture that I think I took June 8, 2021 of one of the chargers for electric Lexington, Kentucky city buses.
Though most Lexington city bus service (Lextran) buses are still diesel-powered, there are some diesel-electric hybrid powered, some compressed natural gas powered, and I hope there will soon be an increasing number of electric powered ones.
Even electric 18-wheelers are being built. A March 22, 2022 Colorado Department of Transportation news release [5] announced that electric 18-wheelers would soon be coming to the state, stating that Nikola Tre trucks to be sold in the state would have "a range of up to 350 miles" between charges.
Electric semi-trucks can work out well for short routes according to a Canary Media article [6] and other sources, though battery life doesn’t yet permit use on long routes.
However, efforts are underway to reduce the time to charge electric vehicle batteries. For example, a new charging cable developed at Purdue University [7] may allow cars to be charged in less than five minutes if it lives up to expectations.
Closing Thoughts
As I see it, new electric vehicles are likely to be mass produced and outsell their gasoline-powered competitors within a decade or two. Improvements in battery-life and chargers will enable these new electric vehicles to be recharged as fast as a car gas tank can be filled and to drive as far between recharges as a gasoline-powered car can between fill-ups.
ENDNOTES:
[1] “Summary Report on EVs at Scale and the U.S. Electric Power System”; November 2019; Energy.gov; webpage accessed July 26, 2022; https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/12/f69/GITT%20ISATT%20EVs%20at%20Scale%20Grid%20Summary%20Report%20FINAL%20Nov2019.pdf.
[2] Morris, James; “Electricity Grids Can Handle Electric Vehicles Easily – They Just Need Proper Management”; Forbes; July 13, 2021; webpage accessed July 25, 2022; https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2021/11/13/electricity-grids-can-handle-electric-vehicles-easily--they-just-need-proper-management/?sh=4b8a09a57862.
[3] Knobloch, Florian; Hanssen, Steef V.; Lam, Aileen; Pollitt, Hector; Salas, Pablo; Chewpreechah, Unada; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; and Mercure, Jean-Francois; “Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time”; Nature Sustainability; June 2020; Vol. 3, pages 437-447; webpage accessed July 25, 2022; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf?shared_access_token=4HVrFlvKvrUrkik37QDrHNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OMBHrNGD6k2npei17x4aWW28rGsQX6mDMk4uVBOBG-qCojvkQyjh434dPvXp7ULPURDTxD_zdRyr5LDQB18mR-o3_0tqT_xsIWbcYUw5V5vQ%3D%3D.
[4] “Electric Vehicle Myths”; United States Environmental Protection Agency; last updated June 30, 2022; webpage accessed July 26, 2022; https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths.
[5] “Colorado Welcomes Arrival of New Zero-Emissions Big Rigs”; Colorado Department of Transportation; news release; March 22, 2022; webpage accessed July 26, 2022; https://www.codot.gov/news/2022/march/colorado-welcomes-arrival-of-zero-emissions-big-rigs.
[6] “Electric heavy-duty trucks are hitting the roads in California and beyond”; Canary Media; May 17, 2022; webpage accessed July 26, 2022; https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/electric-heavy-duty-trucks-are-hitting-the-roads-in-california-and-beyond.
[7] “Electric vehicles could fully recharge in under 5 minutes with new charging station cable design”; Purdue University; November 10, 2021; webpage accessed July 26, 2022; https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2021/Q4/electric-vehicles-could-fully-recharge-in-under-5-minutes-with-new-charging-station-cable-design.html
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