As the 2020 election
campaign continues, problems face the leading Presidential candidates and the
persons who will be casting votes.
Joe
Biden
Joe Biden’s impressive
Super Tuesday showing may make him the front runner for the Democratic
nomination for President. But he faces questions about his health.
Numerous errors in his
speeches lead many to think he may be showing early signs of some type of dementia
or senility. Various news sources have reported him stating he was running for
U.S. Senate instead of President, people could vote for him or the other Biden,
confusing his wife and sister, forgetting former President Obama’s name,
forgetting what state he was speaking in, etc.
A Consortium
News piece[1]
is one of many that discuss these goofs. Though his gaffes seem to be becoming
more frequent, a New
York Times piece[2]
from a few months ago notes they are not new.
Bernie
Sanders
Bernie Sanders is the
other major Democratic candidate remaining in the race. He is disliked by many
prominent party officials, as indicated by the endorsements Joe Biden has
recently received.
Also, lots of people
consider the socialist views of Sanders far too liberal. Sanders’ strongest
support seems to be among young people (possibly partially due to his promise
of free college tuition), and young people typically don’t vote in as high a
percentage as older voters.
Donald
Trump
Donald Trump has
accomplished much of what he campaigned on in 2016 whether you like him or not.
During his administration, the unemployment rate has dropped, wages have gone
up, conservative judges and Supreme Court justices have been appointed, and the
unpopular ObamaCare healthcare mandate with its $695 penalty has been repealed.
But Trump’s hyperbole
(lies?) in Tweets have offended many. Furthermore, with the spread of the new
coronavirus (COVID-19) from China, the stock market is going down and there are
fears that the economy may follow. Coronavirus and a potentially declining
economy may be his two biggest problems.
U.S.
Voters
United States voters will
likely be showing increasing concern as COVID-19 spreads and 401k values continue
to drop in the coming months. If the job market and other aspects of the
economy decline, that will add to voters’ concerns.
Abortion is a big issue
for many liberal voters and many conservative voters, but the economy and
COVID-19 will be bigger issues for most voters in coming months as I see it.
What
Will the Results Be?
Only God knows what the
results will be. But we can speculate.
As I see it, Bernie
Sanders cannot win the election without a broader base of supporters. Due to
the opposition of key party leaders and former candidates, I doubt that he will
get that needed support.
Joe Biden’s misspeaking didn’t
seem to hurt him significantly on Super Tuesday. As long as the main party
officials continue to back him, he will likely continue to win more primaries
than Sanders. I expect Biden to get enough support to win the Democratic
nomination on the first ballot.
The key factors for
Donald Trump will be the coronavirus and the economy. The coronavirus continues
to spread and will likely get worse in the next few months. But the general
election is not being held in a few months. It is in November.
Some other coronaviruses
like colds and the flu usually subside during spring. Many experts hope that COVID-19
cases will decline by late spring. But experts
are uncertain whether cases will decline seasonally.[3] Still, the facts that most
cases are relatively mild, massive resources are being assembled to quarantine
and treat those ill, and efforts to develop a safe, effective vaccine for it are
being expedited, all bode well.
China
claims it could have a vaccine by late April.[4] Furthermore, persons are being
recruited to test a vaccine[5] in
April here in the United States. My guess is that we’ll be well on the way
toward having a safe, effective vaccine for the general public before the November
election—even if it takes a year or more to mass produce such a vaccine.
Since COVID-19 apparently
has at
least two strains according to at least one researcher,[6] there may be a need for
more than one vaccine. Just as a new flu vaccine is developed annually for one
or more specific strains, a COVID-19 vaccine may need to focus on the most
severe or common strain.
Massive resources are
being devoted to combatting the new coronavirus. The $8.3 billion of federal
money that the United States Congress and the President recently approved can
help much in coming months. Regarding coronavirus, the important thing for the
election in November may be that the number of ill people will likely be much
lower in November than this winter and this spring, in my opinion, based on my
admittedly very limited information; and, since I’m not a medical professional,
I can’t give medical advice.
The most important factor
in the election may be the economy. The economy may be getting worse the next
few months due primarily to COVID-19. But it will hopefully be gearing up again
this summer and fall. Realize of course that these are my opinions, not facts.
Closing
Thoughts
My forecast (which may or
may not be worth the computer screen I’m printing it on) is that due to a
decline in coronavirus cases and improvements in the economy, Trump will be
reelected in November. I expect Biden to win the Democratic nomination, and
though Sanders supporters won’t vote for Trump, my guess is that many of those
younger Sanders supporters will choose not to vote at all due to their dislike
for both Biden and Trump.
Trump’s strongest
opposition might come from a Biden-Clinton ticket, with Hillary Clinton as
Biden’s vice presidential running mate. Hillary Clinton is probably much more
liberal than Biden. I think she’d prefer to be President than Vice President.
And I think Joe Biden would rather have someone other than her as his Vice
President.
But Clinton’s desire to
get back into a political leadership position, and Biden’s need to add someone
to strengthen his campaign’s chances at winning, may make such a matchup happen.
And if Biden won and his alleged senility progressed, he could choose to resign
and allow Hillary Clinton to become President.
Though I’m an independent
voter who voted for a third party candidate in 2016, I do agree with many of
the things Trump has accomplished, and like him much better for his
effectiveness as President than as a person. My guess is that if the economy is
improving again in November, he will be reelected.
ENDNOTES:
[1] Caitlin Johnstone;
“Stop Calling It a ‘Stutter:’ Dozens of Examples Show Biden’s Dementia
Symptoms”; Consortium News; March 6, 2020; webpage accessed March 7, 2020; https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/06/stop-calling-it-a-stutter-dozens-of-examples-show-bidens-dementia-symptoms/
[2] Katie Glueck; “The
Many Ways That Joe Biden Trips Over His Own Tongue”; New York Times; October
31, 2019; webpage accessed March 7, 2020; https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/us/politics/joe-biden-debate-gaffes.html
[3] Sarah Gibbens;
“Will warming spring temperatures slow the coronavirus?”; National Geographic;
February 25, 2020 (last updated March 6, 2020); webpage accessed March 7, 2020;
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/#close
[4] “China claims the
first coronavirus vaccines ‘could be’ in clinical use next month”; DailyMail;
March 6, 2020; webpage accessed March 7, 2020; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8082805/China-claims-coronavirus-vaccine-clinical-use-April.html
[5] Nicolleta Nanese;
“First coronavirus vaccine trial in the US is recruiting volunteers”;
LiveScience; March 5, 2020; webpage accessed March 7, 2020; https://www.livescience.com/us-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-recruiting.html
[6] Jessica Hamzelou;
“Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly”; New Scientist; March
5, 2020; webpage accessed March 7, 2020; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
NOTE:
This
article being submitted to Google Blogger on March 8, 2020 is virtually
identical to one submitted to Craft News Report, a website operated by the
author’s friend Paul Craft, on March 7, 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment