Facts, Statistics, Opinions, Errors, and Lies: Interpreting News

“News” isn’t always news. Much of what the news media, scientists, politicians, so-called “experts,” and others seek to pass off as facts actually are just statistics, opinions, or deliberate lies.

It’s important to seek to interpret what one reads, hears, and sees critically to seek to discern the facts, the truth.

COVID-19 Example

For example, when numerous news media sources reported on Sunday, June 7, 2020, that almost 7 million persons had contracted COVID-19 and over 400,000 had died, that was not a fact. It was a statistic based on an interpretation of particular data received by a particular organization, Johns Hopkins University, which is gathering information from various sources around the world.

And when a John's Hopkins webpage today, February 14, 2023*, states that worldwide there have been 673,127,746 COVID-19 cases and 6,855,628 deaths, that is also a statistic, not an exactly correct number.

I commend Johns Hopkins for the time and effort they take to assemble data from numerous resources and for updating their numbers frequently each day. Their statistics may be the best we have available. But, as they know, the statistics are not exactly accurate.

The percentage of persons tested varies by country and by region within countries. Many who have (or have had) the disease have never been tested. Furthermore, the tests aren’t always accurate. And many at-home test results are not reported publicly to officials.

Many who die without being tested aren’t counted as COVID-19 deaths. Furthermore, many deaths may be counted as being due to the virus even though the persons weren’t tested and had other health issues.

Even if Johns Hopkins does a perfect job of assembling the available data, don’t expect their statistics to be accurate, because the original data they used is not accurate. They know that. But the media that wants a short sound bite, often doesn‘t go into a lot of details to explain that.

The fact is that we humans will never know the actual number of persons who contract COVID-19 or that die from it. However, I am thankful for the statistics Johns Hopkins provides, even though I know they are potentially in error by a large amount.

Let’s discuss the differences between facts, statistics, opinions, and lies. 

Facts

Facts are things that are 100% true. They don’t change. And much of what is reported in the news as being “factual” actually is not. 

For example, with breaking news stories and often even with other stories, news media eager to report quickly state “facts” that aren’t facts. Anytime you read, watch, or listen to news coverage of a breaking news story, accept that many things being presented as “facts” are not verifiable facts. The reporters don’t know yet. Maybe they never will.

Furthermore, a statement by an official is not a fact. Neither is a press release from a political official, corporation, or another source. The press release is likely biased, presenting views in a way that benefits the particular source submitting the press release.

Statistics

Statistics provide useful information. But they can be presented and interpreted in various ways. And their quality depends on the quality of the data used to assemble them. To help determine the quality of the information, seek to determine the original source(s) of the data, the type of data, and how it is being presented. Remember the example I used earlier about statistics on COVID-19?

I took a few statistics courses in college and later tutored some college students in introductory statistics. I know statistics have limitations. Below is a photo of statistics books I own. I confess I seldom refer to them and remember little I learned from them, though I acknowledge that statistics can be useful.

Opinions   

Opinions are views expressed by some particular person or group. When opinions are supported by facts and quality statistics, they can be very helpful. But emotional, one-sided opinion pieces that lack support and/or deliberately distort the available information are counterproductive.

If you only consider opinions of one group (Democrats or Republicans?), you’re probably getting a very limited perspective. Sadly, too often charismatic speakers or writers can distort public opinion via their biased statements. 

Errors and Lies

Persons make mistakes and opinions can be wrong. These are errors. When “errors” are deliberate, they become not just errors, but also lies.

How often do politicians and others lie? Much too often. Furthermore, in this age of email, Twitter, Facebook, etc., persons can post lies quickly to millions of persons.

People like unusual stories. Sensationalism often makes the news headlines. On social media websites that have little moderation or editing, “fake news” that presents an emotional story can be spread quickly and create outrage or other emotions in those who see or read it before it can be corrected.

     

More Examples of Facts Versus Fiction Related to COVID-19

When someone tells you that distancing helps prevent the spread of COVID-19, you can accept that as a fact. For example, other things being equal, if you are 100 miles away from the nearest case, I’m confident you are unlikely to contract the disease.

But if someone tells you 3 feet, 6 feet, or 10 feet is a safe distance, that is just an opinion based on limited information. In those cases, your safety may depend on how long you are that close, whether you are indoors or outdoors, what type of ventilation system the building has or whether the wind is blowing outside and in which direction, whether the person with the disease is coughing, sneezing, talking, singing, etc., and maybe many other factors as well, including the status of your immune system. We don’t know. Even the experts don’t know. And what I wrote here is my opinion, not a fact.

However, if you are hugging, kissing, and speaking to someone less than a foot away, it’s almost certain you can contract the virus if they have it and are contagious. But deciding exactly how far away for how long is safe, is not known.

Wearing a facial mask over the nose and mouth certainly can help reduce the spread of the disease. When in the early going, we were told it didn’t, that was at best an erroneous opinion expressed by people who should have known better and possibly an intentional lie provided since they felt quality face masks were in short supply.

Any type of covering would reduce the spread a bit in my opinion, but I'm not a medical professional and can't give any medical advice. And a quality face mask (such as an N95 one) that covers one’s nose and mouth, along with goggles to protect the eyes, would seem to be reasonably effective at reducing the disease’s spread, if not eliminating it.

Of course problems can arise from potential (or actual) shortages of quality masks and goggles. Furthermore, wearing them could contribute to vision problems from fogged-up glasses, breathing difficulties, and other harmful side effects.

Much remains unknown to us and the experts, despite the confidence with which so-called experts proclaim particular “facts.”

Closing Thoughts

Don’t rush to accept news statements as being facts. Seek to learn more about situations. Seek the truth about the stories in the headlines--or at least accept the possibility that what is reported is not accurate.

Finally, if you can get beyond the short sound bites of feature stories in the news headlines to learn more about other aspects and about other events that get less news coverage, that’s even better. Much better.

ENDNOTE:

"Johns Hopkins University of Medicine: Coronavirus Resource Center: COVID-19 Dashboard"; webpage accessed February 14, 2023; webpage stated it was last updated February 14, 2023, 1:20 p.m.; https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

NOTE:

This article posted on June 7, 2020, was adapted from one the author submitted to Craft News Report, a website operated by his friend Paul Craft, earlier the same day.

This article was last revised on February 14, 2023.