Voters increasingly seem
to be rejecting political parties and party politics.
Registered
Independents Outnumber Registered Republicans
Registered independent
voters outnumbered registered Republican voters “in the 31 states that
require voters to register by party” according to a Washington
Post article[1] on
February 28, 2020 that cited data from Ballot Access News for its information.
That seems to remain true in 2023. A 2023 World Population Review article[2] states that there are more voters registered as other or no party than as members of the Republican Party. That article uses individual state data from various dates to derive its results.
Furthermore, party
leaders don’t seem to control the Presidential election process as much as they
used to.
Personally, I registered to vote as an independent in 1976 and remain an independent today. I vote in the November general elections and often vote in the primary elections in nonpartisan races where I can vote. Below is a photo of the "I Voted" sticker I received after voting in the November 2022 election.
Trump’s
Early Success Came from Voters, Not Party Leaders
When Donald Trump ran for
President and won in 2016, he attracted relatively little support (and a lot of
opposition) from traditional Republican party leaders during the Republican
primary season. His support came from the voters not the party leaders.
Indeed, although Donald
Trump is currently a Republican, over the years he has changed his party
registration several times. At times he has been a registered Democrat or an independent,
in addition to being a Republican at least twice, according to a Newsweek
article[3]
and numerous other sources.
Bernie
Sanders’ Early Support Comes From Voters, Not Party Leaders
Similarly, an early favorite in the 2020 Democratic primary election, Bernie Sanders, attracted
relatively little support from traditional Democratic party leaders (and a
significant amount of opposition).
Indeed, Sanders actually
serves in Congress as an independent. As NPR
reported in 2019,[4] Bernie Sanders filed both
to run as an independent for reelection to Congress in 2024, as well as to run for
the Democratic nomination for President in 2020. It might be more accurate to
call him a socialist than a Democrat.
Sanders is popular among many
Democrats at the grassroots level. But, while Bernie Sanders’ views are
certainly closer to those of Democrats than to those of Republicans, his
history as an independent and his support of socialist policies in several ways
separate him from traditional Democratic party leaders.
Politics
Naturally Leads to Two Groups
Regardless of whether or
not two major political parties dominate elections, the voting process
naturally leads to two divisions. On one hand you have the individual that wins
an election and those who support or agree with that person. On the other hand
you find all those who disagree with that person. Of course some are ambivalent
or undecided, but the majority of these persons may not vote.
Kentucky
as an Example of Changes
When I grew up here in Kentucky
in the 1960s and early 1970s, the winner of the Democratic primary election
typically won the general election in most races. In many elections there was either
no Republican candidate in the general election or just one with little
support. And there were very few registered independent voters.
In 2020 when I originally published this article there were still more
registered Democratic voters in Kentucky than Republicans, and far fewer
independents than members of either party, according to the Commonwealth
of Kentucky State Board of Elections.[5] But these registered
Democratic voters often voted for Republicans.
Last year, 2022, the number of registered Republicans in Kentucky officially surpassed the number of registered Democrats according to an Associated Press article[6] and other sources.
Traditionally Kentucky
had been a state of conservative Democrats. As Democrats at the national level
became more and more liberal on issues like abortion, gun control, etc.,
Kentucky’s registered Democrats increasingly voted Republican.
And the number
of registered independents, though still relatively small, is increasing.
Trump,
Sanders, and Polarization
Donald Trump attracted a
lot of Democratic votes in Kentucky and around the country. Both Trump and
Bernie Sanders have attained a lot of support from voters despite very little
support from their Republican and Democratic party leaders, at least in the
early stages of their Presidential campaigns.
But Trump and Sanders are
somewhat polarizing in many ways due to their views, etc. Sanders is especially
popular among young liberal voters according to FiveThirtyEight.com[7]
and other sources. In contrast, some of Trump’s strongest support comes from
white, non-college-educated, older voters according Axios.com[8]
and other sources. Thus, there are to a certain extent two somewhat polarized
groups.
I would love to see an
end to the polarization of the two parties and of individual candidates. It
would be great to see Democrats and Republicans unite for what is best for the
entire situation, whatever the particular situation is.
While Trump and Sanders
may not agree on a lot of the major issues that lead news headlines, the fact
that both attained political success while going against their respective
parties’ established leaders, bodes well for those seeking to end the dominance
of elections by career party politicians.
Trump is a maverick who
has expressed views closer to those of Democrats than of Republicans on some
issues (rebuilding infrastructure, reducing military involvement overseas,
etc.). Sanders is a maverick, basically a socialist, who advocates several
entitlement programs that would put the United States well on its way to
socialism if he were elected and successful in implementing what he’s
campaigning on.
While seeking to do it in
different ways, both Trump and Sanders both advocated programs that would
greatly increase federal government spending and budget deficits, as I see it.
It might be nice if their great, great grandchildren and other descendants were
here to see how they propose spending their tax money.
Closing
Thoughts on Voters and Government Spending
One thing that doesn’t
seem to have changed is that a key to attracting votes is often to propose
spending money on programs that benefit voters, regardless of the effect on the
budget deficit. As voters increasingly reject traditional political parties and
party politics, which I think is good, it would be nice if they also rejected
deficit spending even if it benefits them.
That may not happen until
it becomes a necessity though—and that time may be sooner rather than later if Democrats and Republicans continue creating federal budgets with huge annual deficits. I am an optimist
who believes budget deficits will be reduced in time though.
ENDNOTES:
[1] Aaron Blake; “For
the first time, there are fewer registered Republicans than independents”;
WashingtonPost.com; February 28, 2020; webpage accessed February 29, 2020; https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/28/first-time-ever-there-are-fewer-registered-republicans-than-independents/
[2] "Registered Voters by Party 2023"; WorldPopulationReview.com; webpage accessed April 4, 2023; https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party
[3] Jason Le Miere;
“Is Trump Republican? Timeline of President’s Changing Views After He Sides
With Democrats”; Newsweek.com; September 7, 2017; webpage accessed February 29,
2020; https://www.newsweek.com/trump-republican-democrats-president-661340
[4] Domenico
Montanaro; “Bernie Sanders Files to Run As a Democrat—And an Independent”;
NPR.org; March 4, 2019; webpage accessed February 29, 2020; https://www.npr.org/2019/03/04/700121429/bernie-sanders-files-to-run-as-a-democrat-and-an-independent
[5] “Registration
Statistics”; Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections”; webpage
accessed February 29, 2020; https://elect.ky.gov/Resources/Pages/Registration-Statistics.aspx
[6] Bruce Schreiner; "Kentucky GOP overtakes Democrats in voter registration"; Associated Press; July 15, 2022; webpage accessed April 4, 2023; https://apnews.com/article/elections-kentucky-voter-registration-mitch-mcconnell-congress-ba56602785c07bc4a11534c6859fa7c3
[7] Laura Bronner and
Perry Bacon, Jr.; “What Defines the Sanders Coalition?”; FiveThirtyEight.com;
February 28, 2020; webpage accessed February 29, 2020; https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-defines-the-sanders-coalition/
[8] Stef W. Kight;
“The demographic shifts disrupting the political world”; Axios.com; February 2,
2020; webpage accessed February 29, 2020; https://www.axios.com/demographic-shifts-what-matters-2020-424161bf-1e6e-4da9-b2b2-9a6b2b2099fa.html
NOTE:
This
article submitted to Google Blogger on March 1, 2020 is virtually identical
to one the author submitted to Craft News Report, a website operated by his
friend Paul Craft, on February 29, 2020.
This article was last revised on April 4, 2023.
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